Clean Electricity Crosses 40%: A Global Tipping Point or Just the Beginning?
A Historic Shift in the Power Mix
In the first half of 2025, clean electricity — defined as renewables plus nuclear — supplied 43.2% of global electricity, according to Ember’s latest Global Electricity Mid-Year Review. This milestone marks a profound shift: the grid is changing faster than most people realise. But is this truly the breakthrough it appears to be? And what does it mean for the fight against climate change?
To answer that, we need to step back and look at the long arc of energy history.
From Coal’s Reign to Clean Power’s Rise
For over a century, fossil fuels dominated the power mix. In 1985, coal, oil, and gas accounted for more than 75% of electricity worldwide, while renewables (mainly hydropower) supplied less than 20%. By 2000, despite early signs of wind and solar, fossil fuels still held firm at ~65–70%.
Fast forward to 2010: fossil fuels supplied about 68% of electricity, renewables (including hydro, wind, solar, biomass, geothermal) ~20%, and nuclear about 13%.
The real acceleration began in the 2010s and 2020s. Solar costs plunged by more than 80% since 2010; wind by ~60%. Policies, subsidies, and rapid deployment in China, the EU, India, and the U.S. pushed clean technologies into the mainstream. By 2020, clean electricity’s share was ~34%. By 2024, it crossed 40% for the first time in history. In the first half of 2025, it hit 43.2%.
What’s Behind the Surge?
The leap to over 40% clean power was not inevitable. It was driven by three interlocking factors:
Technology cost declines — Solar and wind are now the cheapest sources of new electricity in most of the world.
Massive build-out in Asia and Europe — China alone accounted for over half of global solar and wind additions in 2024, while the EU pushed record levels of wind and solar integration.
Policy frameworks — U.S. tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act, Europe’s Green Deal and REPowerEU, India’s renewable auctions, and China’s industrial policies all played decisive roles.
Is It Really “Clean” Power?
The 43.2% clean electricity share in early 2025 breaks down as follows:
Solar + wind: 15.4%
Hydropower: ~16%
Nuclear: ~9%
Other renewables (biomass, geothermal): ~2–3%
While renewables dominate growth, nuclear and hydro remain significant. But “clean” is not always uncontested. Hydropower dams can disrupt ecosystems; bioenergy raises land-use concerns; nuclear waste remains unresolved. Even solar and wind bring mining and recycling challenges.
Who’s Leading and Who’s Lagging?
Leaders:
Europe: Denmark, Portugal, and Spain generate well over 70% from renewables.
China: The single largest builder of clean capacity—adding more solar in 2024 than the rest of the world combined.
U.S.: Accelerating under the IRA, with record clean energy investments in 2024–25. But with the Trump administration rolling back incentives and adding new hurdles for wind and solar, America’s clean energy trajectory now hangs in the balance — raising questions about whether recent gains can be sustained, or whether global leadership will shift decisively to China and Europe.
Laggards:
Middle East & parts of Africa: Still heavily fossil-dependent, though solar is scaling fast.
Southeast Asia: Coal expansions continue in Indonesia and Vietnam, though renewables are rising.
The Paradox: Clean Power Up, Emissions Still Rising
If clean electricity is booming, why are global emissions still climbing? The answer lies in two realities:
Electricity demand is soaring. Rapid electrification of transport, heating, and industry is driving consumption faster than clean supply can keep up.
On top of this, AI and data center growth is emerging as a major new driver — training and running large AI models already consumes an amount of electricity equivalent to that of a small country, and global demand from AI workloads is projected to grow 10–15% per year.
Add in extreme weather events, which spike air conditioning and heating use, and the pressure on grids is unprecedented.
Total global electricity consumption rose to ~27,000 TWh in 2024, up from ~18,500 TWh in 2000 and ~22,000 TWh in 2010. Under current trends, it is projected to reach ~33,000 TWh by 2030. This shows how demand has grown more than 45% over the past 24 years, highlighting that even a rising clean energy share must contend with a rapidly expanding total electricity market.
Fossil fuels are not shrinking fast enough. Coal still supplied ~35% of global power in H1 2025, gas ~21%, and oil a small but stubborn share. In absolute terms, fossil power generation remains near record highs.
This explains the paradox: a bigger clean share, but also more total electricity demand, means emissions haven’t peaked decisively yet.
Fossil Fuel Lobbying: The Invisible Handbrake
The clean transition could have moved faster — but fossil fuel lobbying has played a delaying role. Reports in 2025 show:
Oil and gas companies spent billions lobbying against renewable subsidies and pushing for extended fossil fuel lifelines.
Trade associations in the U.S. and EU actively watered down or delayed grid reform and renewable targets.
At international climate talks, major fossil exporters (notably Saudi Arabia and Russia) have resisted strong commitments to phase out fossil fuels.
These efforts, often hidden behind PR about “cleaner fossil fuels” or “technology neutrality,” slow permitting, weaken targets, and sow doubt.
What Comes Next? Projections for the Next 20 Years
By 2030: IEA and IRENA both project renewables will reach 55–60% of global electricity if current policies hold.
By 2040: Renewables could rise to 70–80%, but only with major grid/storage investment.
By 2050: Net-zero pathways require 90%+ clean electricity, with fossil fuels almost entirely phased out.
The trajectory is promising, but the speed matters. Every year of delay locks in more fossil infrastructure and worsens climate impacts.
What Can You Do?
The transition is not just for governments and corporations. Everyone has a role:
Citizens: Push for clean energy policies, vote accordingly, and switch to clean electricity providers.
Companies: Accelerate renewable procurement (PPAs, rooftop solar), electrify fleets, and cut Scope 2 emissions.
Investors: Shift capital away from fossil-heavy assets and into clean energy projects.
Communities: Support local solar, wind, and storage initiatives; advocate for just transition plans for workers.
The Big Picture: Beyond the 40% Mark
Crossing 40% clean electricity is a milestone worth celebrating. It took decades to get here, but the pace of change in the last 10 years has been breathtaking.
And yet — the harder truth is that clean electricity alone won’t stop climate change if fossil fuels aren’t phased out faster. The battle is no longer about whether renewables can compete. It’s about whether politics, vested interests, and lagging sectors allow them to replace fossil fuels quickly enough.
We’ve entered the decisive decade. The grid is ready to change. The question is: are we?